VOLUME I
AUTUMN 1993

CONVERGENTE, SOCIAL CONTRACT AND FISCAL POLICY: A MACROECONOMIC EVALUATION
 
JAVIER ANDRÉS
CÉSAR MOLINAS
DAVID TAGUAS

Ministerio de Economía y Hacienda y Universidad de Valencia
 
This paper provides an empirical quantification of the macroeconomic consequences for the Spanish economy of different growth paths of real wages, within an appropriate analytical framework. Differences in the rates of growth of real unit labour costs have a very substantial influence on production, on employment and on inflation. If real wages grow at a faster rate than productivity, then the distribution of the product in favour of wages to salaried earners will be accompanied by a reduction to family income and wealth in real terms. The contrary will be the case if real wages grow at a lower rate than productivity. The paper also provides an evaluation of the possibilities offered by fiscal policy as an instrument to control inflation in a situation of strong growth in wages. At the present time, the effects of fiscal policy on prices are relatively weak, so it will be necessary for there to be large scale fiscal contractions in order to redirect inflation towards rates which are compatible with a process of macroeconomic convergence. Faced with this situation, it is important to persevere with supply side policies and to reach a consensus over incomes policy.
 
Keywords: real wages, income distribution, fiscal policy.

TO DOWNLOAD THIS PAPER