VOLUME II
AUTUMN 1994

LONG TERM REAL INTEREST RATES DETERMINANTS IN SPAIN
 
VICENTE ESTEVE
Universidad de Valencia y C.R.D.E., Université de Montréal
CECILIO R. TAMARIT
Universidad de Valencia y Federación Valenciana de Cajas de Ahorros
 
This paper examines the macroeconomic factors which influence the behaviour of real interest rates in Spain over the long run. We use annual data for the period 1964-1991. The theoretical framework is based on a structural model in which the interest rate is determined by an equilibrium between saving and investment and therefore, by the variables bebind these aggregates. The results indicate that real interest rates depend on private wealth, demographic factors and the rate of return to physical capital in the long run. Fiscal policy variables appear to be significant only in the short term.
 
Keywords: real interest rates, saving, investment, cointegration, error correction model.

TO DOWNLOAD THIS PAPER