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VOLUME VIII
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WINTER 2000
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CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN THE G7 AND SPANISH BUSINESS CYCLES
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JAVIER GARDEAZÁBAL
MARÍA CARMEN IGLESIAS Universidad del País Vasco |
In this paper we analyze the causal relationships between the G7 and Spanish business cycles in terms of GDP. We make use of di¤erent univariate filters to extract the business cycles components, thus allowing us to check the robustness of our results with respect to the filtering method. The empirical evidence presented in this paper suggests that there is instantaneous causality between the Spanish, French and Italian business cycles, while the business cycles of Italy and the United Kingdom cause the Spanish business cycle in the Granger sense. When using a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition we find that the Spanish business cycle is weakly exogenous with respect to the common business cycles of the G7 and Spain.
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Key words: business cycles, filters, international transmission, causality.
JEL classification: E32, C32. |
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