VOLUME VIII
WINTER 2000

AUTOMOBILE REGISTRATIONS DURING THE 1990’s
 
Mª JOSÉ MORAL
Universidad Europea de Madrid y PIE-FEP
 
In this paper, I study the evolution of automobile registrations in Spain using a new database (from I-1990 to XII-1996.) The registration variation rate is specified with two functional forms, one logarithmic and an other weighted in which entries and exits are checked. Results show a negative average variation rate although there are significant differences according to market segment and permanence. The model age (time that model is marketing in the Spanish market) is crucial to explain the variation rate. Indeed, the first year is the period when the increase in sales is largest. Finally, I do an exercise of simulation of registrations depending on age, that is, I simulate the model life cycle. From my results it is clear that life cycles are different by market segments. In particular, luxury cars show a longer duration while small cars get higher registrations.
 
Key words: car registrations, variation rate and model cycle.
JEL classification: D43.

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