VOLUME XIX
SPRING 2011

HAVE REAL INTEREST RATES REALLY FALLEN THAT MUCH IN SPAIN?
 
ROBERTO BLANCO
Banco de Espaņa
FERNANDO RESTOY
CNMV
 
This paper analyses the behaviour of real interest rates in the Spanish economy between 1990 and 2005. Since inflation-indexed bonds are not available, changes in implicit real interest rates are estimated using several approaches suggested by macroeconomic and financial theory. In particular, we employ equilibrium conditions of a representative agent under several specifications of preferences. Moreover, we exploit no-arbitrage conditions in securities markets. The evidence we report indicates that inflation uncertainty could account for a notable part of the observed decrease in nominal rates. Consequently, the actual real cost of financing might have decreased significantly less than what the course of ex-post real rates would suggest.
 
Key words: real interest rates, intertemporal marginal rate of substitution.
JEL classification: E43, G12.

TO DOWNLOAD THIS PAPER