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VOLUME XIX
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SPRING 2011
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HAVE REAL INTEREST RATES REALLY FALLEN THAT MUCH IN SPAIN?
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ROBERTO BLANCO
Banco de Espaņa FERNANDO RESTOY CNMV |
This paper analyses the behaviour of real interest rates in the Spanish economy between 1990 and 2005. Since inflation-indexed bonds are not available, changes in implicit real interest rates are estimated using several approaches suggested by macroeconomic and financial theory. In particular, we employ equilibrium conditions of a representative agent under several specifications of preferences. Moreover, we exploit no-arbitrage conditions in securities markets. The evidence we report indicates that inflation uncertainty could account for a notable part of the observed decrease in nominal rates. Consequently, the actual real cost of financing might have decreased significantly less than what the course of ex-post real rates would suggest.
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Key words: real interest rates, intertemporal marginal rate of substitution.
JEL classification: E43, G12. |
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