We analyze the individual distribution of lifetime costs of long-term care related to dependence. Using the data from the survey EDAD (INE, 2008), the mortality table for the Spanish population, the cost of care services and a simplifying assumption on the type of care provided according to the degree of dependence, we relate the expected time in need of care to the intensity of services required in order to obtain an estimate of individual expenditure throughout life. The statistical distribution of lifetime costs of care for dependency in the 65-year old population is analyzed and we conclude that the public system in Spain reduces the risk of incurring extremely high costs by more than 30%.

Key words: dependence, longevity, risk.
JEL Classification: J14, I38, C16.